|
Résumé |
Since the numerical simulations of the past decades, we now know that the motion of the
solar system is chaotic with an exponential divergence increasing the uncertainty in the
computations by a factor of 10 every 10 millions of years (Ma). Due to the perturbation of
the minor planets Ceres and Vesta, the horizon of predictability of the orbital solutions is
limited to about 60 Ma, while our latest solutions should be valid over about 50 Ma.
These solutions have been used for the time calibration of sedimentary records and the
establishment of geological time scales, using the correlation between the computed
variation of insolation on Earth and the recorded sedimentary imprint of the resulting
climatic variations. I will discuss the possibility to extend these works beyond the
horizon
of predictability of 60 Ma imposed by the chaotic variations of the orbits.
|
