Statut  Confirmé 
Série  IPHTGEN 
Domaines  physics 
Date  Mardi 22 Mai 2018 
Heure  11:00 
Institut  IPHT 
Salle  Salle Claude Itzykson, Bât. 774 
Nom de l'orateur  Sid Redner 
Prenom de l'orateur  
Addresse email de l'orateur  
Institution de l'orateur  Santa Fe Institute 
Titre  Is Basketball Scoring Just a Random Walk? 
Résumé  Watching basketball is nearly the same as watching repeating coin tossings! By analyzing recently available data from recent NBA basketball seasons, basketball scoring during a game is well described by a continuoustime antipersistent random walk, with essentially no temporal correlations between successive scoring events. We show how to calibrate this model to account for many statistical seasonlong metrics of NBA basketball. As further illustrations of this randomwalk picture, we show that the distribution of times when the last lead change occurs and the distribution of times when the score difference is maximal are both given by the celebrated arcsine law  a beautiful and surprising property of random walks. We also use the randomwalk picture to construct the criterion for when a lead of a specified size is "safe" as a function of the time remaining in the game. The obvious application to gametime betting is left as an exercise for the interested. 
Numéro de preprint arXiv  
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