Pantheon SEMPARIS Le serveur des séminaires parisiens Paris

Statut Confirmé
Série IPHT-GEN
Domaines physics
Date Mardi 22 Mai 2018
Heure 11:00
Institut IPHT
Salle Salle Claude Itzykson, Bât. 774
Nom de l'orateur Sid Redner
Prenom de l'orateur
Addresse email de l'orateur
Institution de l'orateur Santa Fe Institute
Titre Is Basketball Scoring Just a Random Walk?
Résumé Watching basketball is nearly the same as watching repeating coin tossings! By analyzing recently available data from recent NBA basketball seasons, basketball scoring during a game is well described by a continuous-time anti-persistent random walk, with essentially no temporal correlations between successive scoring events. We show how to calibrate this model to account for many statistical season-long metrics of NBA basketball. As further illustrations of this random-walk picture, we show that the distribution of times when the last lead change occurs and the distribution of times when the score difference is maximal are both given by the celebrated arcsine law --- a beautiful and surprising property of random walks. We also use the random-walk picture to construct the criterion for when a lead of a specified size is "safe" as a function of the time remaining in the game. The obvious application to game-time betting is left as an exercise for the interested.
Numéro de preprint arXiv
Commentaires
Fichiers attachés

Pour obtenir l' affiche de ce séminaire : [ Postscript | PDF ]

[ Annonces ]    [ Abonnements ]    [ Archive ]    [ Aide ]    [ ]
[ English version ]